Well it was -25% at GMG the other day, so pretty low risk preorder. Let's face it, most of us are coh fanatics who won't be able to resist getting it regardless of whether it's balanced or whatever.
Yep it's not much of a bonus. But they know that we know that we won't be able to hold off long enough to get a better discount, so we might as well take the candy now. In fact since they know that we know that they know that we know this, the price will remain high until just after everyone has caved in and bought it, so if we hold out now we lose the candy and gain nothing.
It's the level man. I'm experienced enough to observe and understand the mistakes of good players, but in practice I will lose consistently to mediocre players using mediocre strategies.
Overcoming that is the first step; second is to find a regular partner in the same time zone with matching dedication/availability/skill.