I'm not like a veteran or anything but I'll give my 2 cents since nobody's said anything yet:
Number one, know matchups. If you know what the average battle between two units looks like, how long it lasts, etc, you'll know beforehand how likely it is that you'll have to retreat them in the first place.
Number two, consider the enemy squad. Is it a close range specialist squad with SMGs? Do they have high moving accuracy? It's much safer to retreat earlier against these squads, because they are more likely to deal damage to retreating squads.
Number three, it's probably better to play it safe than to stand your ground to the last man. In my understanding, if you're at a point where you're considering retreating, you're already in a precarious position to begin with. If you aren't fighting to keep the last VP friendly while the last few tickets count down, it's probably not worth losing a squad to defend.
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