thanks for clearing that up. though i don't necessarily agree that a complete understanding of the targeting algorithm would be necessary to simulate things - we can always make assumptions and simplifications to get a rough idea how things line up with the in-game results and tweak accordingly. after all, your model also requires certain informed simplifications to be made, which isn't necessarily a bad thing if the results work out nicely.
anyway, i guess that wasn't really the point of my question. what i meant was pretty much what you outlined in the last sentence. if i understand this correctly the amount of hp shifting kind of simulates the degree of 'focus fire' towards single models? in this case (and assuming this is the major factor that defines the randomness of the outcome of a firefight) it would be interesting to see if the variance in a set of calculations with randomized values for hp transfer would match up with the variance in a set of in-game tests (to some extent at least). well, maybe i'm fetching things a bit too far but i thought i just put this out here nonetheless...
Maybe it is possible, but it will be amount of work and cross checking with in-game measurements quite a pain to get some real variance data (for a bigger set of matchups regarding DPS centralization and squad size). Everytime you realize that you tweak your model, you need to re-run the simulation again. It will probably be doable to find settings that mimick CoH2 behaviour, but it'll take ages.
My points for model sniping being the main factor are twofold: 1. Whenever I tried to verify my DPS calculations with in-game measurements I often tested a carbine ranger model shooting at Partisans. And this dude was surprisingly consistent in killing times despite the carbine having amount of RNG delays. He had a lot of shots though to even things out, but any slower shooting squad would have that as well. I had some other tests too that I don't remember that well anymore, but I still kept that as the bottom line. Second, we have seen for ages that we get way more variance in infantry test when we test them in cover. This also hints that it probably is more important that a model got killed instead of how the RNG rolls turn out. Is it true? I never tested it in detail, but at least this is my assumption.
Anyway, back to your actual question: The idea behind this HP shifting is rather easy. I say three grenadiers shoot at Conscript Yuri and the fourth at Conscript Ivan, Yuri will still get killed first, but it takes more time. But he does not eat all the damage alone anymore. The DPS dropoff due to the loss of Yuri is delayed, because Ivan takes some of the damage. This is functionally similat to Ivan shifting some of his HP to Yuri, thereby prolonging the overall time that a higher DPS of the Soviet squad can be maintained.
The way you set this up is fully arbitrary. Does Ivan give 20% of his HP? 50%? 90%? We don't know. In the game I have seen my Rifles running back with 5 models and what must have been no more than 5 HP judging by the health bar. On the other hand I sometimes drop models one by one. What is the middle ground between those? No idea. I think out of pure luck I found some settings that are "good enough" to align roughly with what I tested. We can surely find better ones down the line, but I assume they might be okay as a starting point.
The amount of shifting can be tested. There probably are multiple setups of this shifting that yield similar results. I just checked my current setup, Conscripts here get about 20% better when shifting is allowed, Grens about 10%. This can be either personal bias in my manual setup, but to some extend it makes sense in my eyes (Conscripts "offer" more targets, so damage is more likely to be spread. Grenadiers also centralize more DPS, so they shift HP to models that have comparatively little contribution to the overall damage. Therefore, power does not increase as much).