I think that there are simply too many stats that affect the outcome to actually be able to stat-check it. Received accuracy, aim time, accuracy, reloads, cooldowns to name just a few and there might be a dozen others. My personal experience is that models drop much more quickly on those 4 men squads and dps changes a lot then while at the same time larger squads often lose a lot of health before the first model drops so their dps goes down later in the firefight (yet another factor to include).
Most of these factors should already be calculated into the DPS chart. If Penals win then this shows how unreliable the pure DPS values are for actual combat and that other factors are much more important. Or technically the DPS calculation could be wrong as well, I am not sure if anybody has truly fact checked those graphs. Also it is still unclear if those 0,125 second delays that exist for vehicles also apply to infantry which they likely do. The last man ability that was mentioned can also be an important factor, although at this point Penals already start losing their rifles and DPS while Obers retain their MGs.
I honestly just assumed that the ~2x damage of the MG (depending on range obviously) will likely trump the RNG, but apparently this is not the case.
Penal PTRS has an accuracy of 0.15/0.105/0.06 now if you multiply it by 1.3x.1.3x1.25 it actually goes up to 0.32/0.22/0.13 without even taking into account "to the last man".
Given that they do around 20 damage per shot their DPS is simply not negligible.
Accuracy is not the only thing that matters. PTRS have an atrocious time between shots compared to small arms. At least their DPS is usually about 1/10 of the SVT DPS, so those two guys add about 1/5 of a model, at least normalized to infinite samples. The high damage makes them an RNG cannon vs infantry.
But as I said above, those stats might actually not mean as much as we have thought.