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COH2stats.com match and player statistics 2.0

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20 Apr 2021, 14:23 PM
#61
avatar of Sander93

Posts: 3166 | Subs: 6

Cool next feature would be faction match-ups, winrate of faction A against faction B.


Axis/Allies or faction win ratios per map would also be highly appreciated.
20 Apr 2021, 16:14 PM
#62
avatar of WhiteFlash
Senior Mapmaker Badge
Benefactor 119

Posts: 1295 | Subs: 1



Axis/Allies or faction win ratios per map would also be highly appreciated.


+1
20 Apr 2021, 20:54 PM
#63
avatar of wuff

Posts: 1534 | Subs: 1

20 Apr 2021, 21:04 PM
#64
avatar of pagep

Posts: 164 | Subs: 1

Important thing I just noticed:

The wins and losses do not fully add up, neither in "all data" nor in the "top200".
For example, the current 3v3 top200 data:

https://coh2stats.com/stats/month/1614556800/3v3/wermacht?statsSource=top200

If you add up all the wins and losses, you don't get 0. This means for some reason very few wins or losses are not counted for either Axis or Allies.

Hm you are right. I am trying to figure out what does it mean.

If you count everything together. You get 1302. 1302 / 6 (6 players) and you get 217. Which is the number of the matches correctly counted. But I don't understand why the wins/losses does not add up.

I am not sure if someone drops from the match / how it looks like in the match results - that's only thing which in my mind could be causing some issues.

Do debug this, we need to find a single DAY top200 for 3v3, 4v4 where it does not add up.Found it https://coh2stats.com/stats/daily/1617235200/3v3/wermacht?statsSource=top200 So there is low amount of matches and I will be able to go trough all of them manually to check them.

EDIT: Found it. There is more possible result types than win/lose. I assume those are DROPS/DISPUTES.
Those games were previously counted as losses.

20 Apr 2021, 22:00 PM
#65
avatar of pagep

Posts: 164 | Subs: 1

OK I now about result types for matches:
0 - lose
1 - win

However I just found a match which has result type 4. That means that there should be type 2,3,4. I don't really know what those mean. I am thinking what to do with those matches.

Solutions:
1 - do not count those matches - anything from them
2 - do not count those wins/losses but count the map selection, intel bulletins, commanders and count those matches as a separate entity to wins/losses.

-------------------
Right now I am thinking solution 1 is better one. We(I) don't know what those matches mean so in case we don't include them - we can't hurt the statistics. We might be losing insight maybe into which faction is crashing most :D But I think that's not our concern. Relic should know about the crashes themselves.

Issue tracking this
https://github.com/petrvecera/coh2ladders/issues/29

//EDIT: Solution 1 has been implemented and deployed
2 May 2021, 09:16 AM
#66
avatar of pagep

Posts: 164 | Subs: 1

New mini feature has been released - amount of ingame players for COH2 on Steam.
https://coh2stats.com/

Steam updates this value every 5 minutes. The site has semi-automatic update but you can always trigger it with f5.

----------------------------
Btw new month is in and we have month analysis for the last one.
https://coh2stats.com/stats/month/1617235200/4v4/wermacht?statsSource=top200

I am not really convinced that top 200 analysis is good approach in 3v3,4v4 because the amount of matches which passes the specs is very little. I don't think it is enough games to produce reliable results.

2 May 2021, 17:51 PM
#67
avatar of IntoTheRain

Posts: 179

jump backJump back to quoted post2 May 2021, 09:16 AMpagep
I am not really convinced that top 200 analysis is good approach in 3v3,4v4 because the amount of matches which passes the specs is very little. I don't think it is enough games to produce reliable results.


I think that mode is just going to take longer to collect a meaningful amount of data.
2 May 2021, 18:46 PM
#68
avatar of The_Sunny_Lad

Posts: 10

It might be a good idea to include teams of two in the 3v3/4v4 ranks considering how many teams of two mostly play 3v3s/4v4s.
I just counted and in the top 50 2v2 allies teams, there are ~20 teams that mainly play 2v2s. For axis, it's about 9 (this number drops to 4 if you only consider the top 40).
6 May 2021, 14:34 PM
#69
avatar of general_gawain

Posts: 919

Can somebody explain why Soviets dropped in 4vs4 Top200 monthly data so drastically? Is there any reason?

[url=https://coh2stats.com/stats/month/1617235200/4v4/wgerman?statsSource=top200]https://coh2stats.com/stats/month/1617235200/4v4/wgerman?statsSource=top200

march: 45,6% winrate
april: 38,5% winrate

I always thought off Soviets beeing the strongest allied faction in 4vs4, but in average of both month they have the lowest winrate according to coh2stats.com
6 May 2021, 14:46 PM
#70
avatar of Vipper

Posts: 13476 | Subs: 1

Can somebody explain why Soviets dropped in 4vs4 Top200 monthly data so drastically? Is there any reason?

[url=https://coh2stats.com/stats/month/1617235200/4v4/wgerman?statsSource=top200]https://coh2stats.com/stats/month/1617235200/4v4/wgerman?statsSource=top200

march: 45,6% winrate
april: 38,5% winrate

I always thought off Soviets beeing the strongest allied faction in 4vs4, but in average of both month they have the lowest winrate according to coh2stats.com

Because the sample is simply too small and probably heavily influenced by specific players or teams.

If you use the same number for all player that changes are much smaller.
6 May 2021, 15:00 PM
#71
avatar of Protos Angelus

Posts: 1515

jump backJump back to quoted post6 May 2021, 14:46 PMVipper

Because the sample is simply too small and probably heavily influenced by specific players.

If you use the same number for all player that changes are much smaller.


Smaller? Goes from 38% to 43% which not only shows that the balance is heavily skewed in Axis favour in large gamemodes. Looking at top 200 only, this is further amplified. The number of games is smaller, but still large enough to see a pattern.
It is of several orders of magnitude smaller, the pattern, but still there is a clear outline. 12% is a large margin. In a balanced game, the number would go between 49-51% winrates for factions respectively. For a 12% difference to be in 1000 games, and 8% in 70 000+ games, then the balance team really really needs to get a good look at it. 1v1. Axis lose by a couple of percent, which means they need buffs somewhere. In 2v2+ they need nerfs.

You don't need to be a mathematician to notice the pattern. Hell, if you play 3v3+ you notice it well. Of course, in your mind, axis is severely UP, so I don't plan on discussing anything with you. Good day
6 May 2021, 15:20 PM
#72
avatar of JohnSmith

Posts: 1273

After having played a few 4on4 myself recently (moved from 2on2 OST) I am totally not surprised about these statistics. It just needs 2 people on the Axis team to play with a voice app to totally crush any enemy team made out of randoms.

Also both OST and OKW are the most played factions, easy showing that the balance in 4on4 is totally axis dominated. Are people still arguing they're the most played faction because they have the cooler tanks? No, they're just waaaaaaaay more fun to play with, and way less stressful.

At least the game feels better in 2on2, 4on4 is just total allies bash. If Axis rolls down the hill, they can just snowball allies.
6 May 2021, 15:38 PM
#73
avatar of Hannibal
Senior Moderator Badge

Posts: 3104 | Subs: 2

I would be really careful with reading too much from these statistics.
With the aggregated data of the second month in, you can see how hugely the win rates fluctuate. +/- 5% in 4v4 is apparently easily possible. Especially if you have a look at game count and which factions are played. You'd need a really, really good reasoning to deduce something from that kind of data. And on top of all this, if we really assume that factions with smaller playerbase are in general also of lower skill, Axis should have a win rate of slightly above 50%. However for 4v4 ladder population seems fairly even, on OKW has more players than the others.

Given all this, 3v3 win rates look fairly even in both months, I'd say we really need more months to draw any conclusions.
6 May 2021, 15:39 PM
#74
avatar of Hannibal
Senior Moderator Badge

Posts: 3104 | Subs: 2

Also both OST and OKW are the most played factions, easy showing that the balance in 4on4 is totally axis dominated. Are people still arguing they're the most played faction because they have the cooler tanks? No, they're just waaaaaaaay more fun to play with, and way less stressful.

They are the most played factions because there are only two...
6 May 2021, 15:47 PM
#75
avatar of Vipper

Posts: 13476 | Subs: 1



Smaller? Goes from 38% to 43% which not only shows that the balance is heavily skewed in Axis favour in large gamemodes. Looking at top 200 only, this is further amplified. The number of games is smaller, but still large enough to see a pattern.

When it comes to player TOP200 in 4vs4 the number of games for March is 278 and for April 358.

If one uses the number for player that are top 200 instead, the numbers of games goes up almost 100 times to 33K and 42K.

The first set of number are around 10 games per day and can easily be influenced by a single player or team deciding to play a specific faction for some days.

The second set of number are that easily influenced.


It is of several orders of magnitude smaller, the pattern, but still there is a clear outline. 12% is a large margin. In a balanced game, the number would go between 49-51% winrates for factions respectively. For a 12% difference to be in 1000 games, and 8% in 70 000+ games, then the balance team really really needs to get a good look at it. 1v1. Axis lose by a couple of percent, which means they need buffs somewhere. In 2v2+ they need nerfs.

You don't need to be a mathematician to notice the pattern. Hell, if you play 3v3+ you notice it well. Of course, in your mind, axis is severely UP, so I don't plan on discussing anything with you. Good day

Axis/Allies balance is really irrelevant since the question I replied to, was specifically about the performance of the Soviet faction.

If one uses the stat from "all players" Soviet actually did better in April than they did in March by 0.8%
6 May 2021, 17:00 PM
#76
avatar of general_gawain

Posts: 919

If we really assume that factions with smaller playerbase are in general also of lower skill, Axis should have a win rate of slightly above 50%. However for 4v4 ladder population seems fairly even, on OKW has more players than the others.
I was talking about Soviets Top200 in 4vs4 which are played as often as OKW and almost as often as Ostheer, way more than USF/UKF.
Soviets about 10.600 ranked players
OKW about 10.400 ranked players
Ostheer about 11.700 ranked players

I would assume that there shouldn't be a difference between the Top200 of this three factions. this argument can be applied partly to UKF/USF maybe which only have a ladder about 7100-7600 ranked players.

jump backJump back to quoted post6 May 2021, 15:47 PMVipper


When it comes to player TOP200 in 4vs4 the number of games for March is 278 and for April 358.
What are those numbers? I see 439 and 506 games for Soviets, so this is slightly below 1000 games in two month. You can't calculate how many games you really had in total, because you don't know how many Soviets were in that games that lost or won together.

The total winrate in both month at average is 41,8%
6 May 2021, 17:15 PM
#77
avatar of Vipper

Posts: 13476 | Subs: 1

I was talking about Soviets Top200 in 4vs4 which are played almost as often as OKW and Ostheer, way more than USF/UKF.
Soviets about 10.600 ranked players
OKW about 10.400 ranked players
Ostheer about 11.700 ranked players

I would assume that there shouldn't be a difference between the Top200 of this three factions. this argument can be applied partly to UKF/USF maybe which only have a ladder about 7000 ranked players.

Total number of players not that relevent since in order of a game to count the player must be above ranked 200 in 4vs4 with specific factions.


What are those numbers? I see 439 and 506 games for Soviets, so this is slightly below 1000 games in two month. You can't calculate how many games you really had in total, because you don't know how many Soviets were in that games that lost or won together.

The total winrate in both month at average is 41,8%

If you check under number of players it says:
"Amount of games for this analysis 276"

If the count that is so low if a Top 10 player decided to 1 4vs4 game using only a single faction once a day for month he can play 30 games and influence the result by 10%.

The number of games is simply too low while difference from 1-200 rang to big.

If you check the "all players" number the number are much more normalized.
6 May 2021, 17:35 PM
#78
avatar of JohnSmith

Posts: 1273


They are the most played factions because there are only two...


Relic defines Ost, Okw, UKF, SOV and Usf as factions that are part of the game. There are more than two factions. Arguing about the terminology of the word faction possibly only encompassing two (axis /allies I assume?) is irrelevant schematics.

So yeah, Ost and Okw are the most played factions by far. Fact supported by stats.
6 May 2021, 17:41 PM
#79
avatar of Hannibal
Senior Moderator Badge

Posts: 3104 | Subs: 2

jump backJump back to quoted post6 May 2021, 17:15 PMVipper

Total number of players not that relevent since in order of a game to count the player must be above ranked 200 in 4vs4 with specific factions.

It is, because fewer players also means fewer good players. Top200 is probably not good enough to have a similar skill level across all factions, at least 1v1 data indicates that.

I was talking about Soviets Top200 in 4vs4 which are played as often as OKW and almost as often as Ostheer, way more than USF/UKF.
Soviets about 10.600 ranked players
OKW about 10.400 ranked players
Ostheer about 11.700 ranked players

I would assume that there shouldn't be a difference between the Top200 of this three factions. this argument can be applied partly to UKF/USF maybe which only have a ladder about 7100-7600 ranked players.

I just realized I did not refresh for the last page at some, but still: on these leaderboards I see approx 7-8k for USF and UKF, 10k Soviets and 10-11 for the Axis factions each.
It still means that Axis win rate should be slightly higher because you win against "lower skill" USF and UKF factions. This is not 1v1, as Allies you will get lower skill USF/UKF players more frequently because the pool of better players is smaller.


What are those numbers? I see 439 and 506 games for Soviets, so this is slightly below 1000 games in two month. You can't calculate how many games you really had in total, because you don't know how many Soviets were in that games that lost or won together.

The total winrate in both month at average is 41,8%

These are the number of games that were played in total. I would be careful with counting on a per faction basis in team games since this assumes that the win rates are independent of each other, which is not the case. Your sample size is the number of games in total, not the number of times of picks for a faction, because the win/loss condition is chosen on a game level and not on an individual faction level.

6 May 2021, 17:43 PM
#80
avatar of Hannibal
Senior Moderator Badge

Posts: 3104 | Subs: 2



Relic defines Ost, Okw, UKF, and Usf as factions that are part of the game. There are more than two factions. Arguing about the terminology of the word faction is irrelevant schematics.

So yeah, Ost and Okw are the most played factions by far. Fact supported by stats.

I don't know what you are talking about and why you bring a terminology discussion into this.

OST and OKW are the most played factions because there are only two to pick from. Allied faction picks dilute out over three factions and are therefore less per faction. That's not an advanced concept, and that's all I said.
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