What exactly do you base these chances on? Because it will still have enough pen to reliably pen the rear armor of anything but the heaviest of vehicles (80 pen vs 55-90 rear armor for medium vehicles, 110 for SHTDs and 140-150 for the Tigers), and even if a rocket doesn't pen it still deals a significant amount of deflection damage. As long as most rockets hit, there is no chance to deal a low amount of damage. There will be nothing unreliable about it except for missing rockets, but that didn't change compared to before. Rockets that hit will still deal a reliable amount of damage, just a bit less than before on average. Only its max damage potential is being toned down by 10-20%, which is still like 50-75% of a heavy's health, down from 75-90%.
In tests it still had a max damage potential of around 50-60% or more damage to an Elefant (rear / front) in 9/10 cases. Which part of this picture screams low damage or unreliability to you?
I was actually basing it on YOUR tests, the last time you posted this very image. So thank you for bringing it to the forefront again
6th elefant in top row. Compared to 3rd elefant in top row. That's half a tanks worth of health in an RNG gamble. That's a HUGE amount of variation that could define a match. That is EXACTLY what I'm talking about. In the lower image the damage is CONSISTENT if a too high, in the upper image there is more variation and thus UNRELIABLE.
If the variation from ideal circumstances lead to half health and OHK from death that's a lot of wiggle in a game where the enemy is trying to dodge and even worse if they DON'T. call it in twice where half the rockets miss and deal the same damage as a perfectly lined up, ass armour strafe? Not good...
If you want it to deal less damage one could always simply make the damage less... If one wants to make it less RELIABLE one would drop the pen from mid 300s to 80
I have no issue with lowered damage. I take issue in low RELIABILITY.
Also, obviously more tests are better but I'm going off of your tests and pulling my conclusions from the results you provided and simply, the variation in damage is much greater when you add ~ 1 in 3 chance to do less damage where there previously existed no such thing.
Less damage is a fine path. Less reliability is not. For either side of the strafe.