Login

russian armor

War Paint Championship Statistics

19 Oct 2016, 06:08 AM
#2
avatar of |GB| The Hooligan486
Senior Referee Badge

Posts: 3602 | Subs: 1

Some nice stats again Siphon! Great work :thumbsup:
19 Oct 2016, 06:36 AM
#3
avatar of wuff

Posts: 1505 | Subs: 1

Great write up, nice work.
19 Oct 2016, 12:21 PM
#4
avatar of Mr.Osa

Posts: 74

dat axis win % :P Good job with stats :)
19 Oct 2016, 13:34 PM
#5
avatar of AmiPolizeiFunk
Admin Black Badge
Patrion 15

Posts: 16654 | Subs: 11

The quality of these posts (both content and presentation) is above the bar, Siphon. Thank you!
20 Oct 2016, 05:19 AM
#6
avatar of Rappy

Posts: 526

Yeah. great stuff.
20 Oct 2016, 13:32 PM
#7
avatar of Delodax

Posts: 49

Excellent article! Makes it look pretty obvious one army is overperforming... ;)
20 Oct 2016, 23:23 PM
#8
avatar of Gdot

Posts: 1136 | Subs: 1

Lookin' good out there Ostheer. Keep up the good work. :guyokay:
25 Oct 2016, 21:56 PM
#9
avatar of GhostTX

Posts: 315

I enjoyed the data mining, but of the 191 games, how many players were responsible for that? And of that, how many times did those players play as what faction?

Just curious to see how perceived skill levels go into the win/loss stats. Meaning if the "pro" players played allies more often versus the "noob" players, the side winning stats will skew that way.
1 Nov 2016, 13:05 PM
#10
avatar of Siphon X.
Senior Editor Badge

Posts: 1136 | Subs: 2

jump backJump back to quoted post25 Oct 2016, 21:56 PMGhostTX
I enjoyed the data mining, but of the 191 games, how many players were responsible for that? And of that, how many times did those players play as what faction?

Just curious to see how perceived skill levels go into the win/loss stats. Meaning if the "pro" players played allies more often versus the "noob" players, the side winning stats will skew that way.


In total more than 100 players played, but only 27 contributed to more than 4 games. Top players in terms of games are












22 RealG DevM
20 Theodosios
16 JesuliN
12 cruzz
11 VonIvan
11 -HOI-PauL.a.D
10 SoE-Overlord-
10 Brosras {C}
10 Sotjador
10 wmm//wuff


Good point, though, if for some reason the "pro" would always pick OH while the "noob" would always pick OKW, obviously the stats would indicate a much better win percentage for OH and a very poor for OKW. That said, I doubt this has a significant impact, because why would that happen? If you check out the player based stats for ESL you'll find that even for top players personal preference seems to play a really important role in terms of faction choice.

Fact is, there is a significant skill gap in most matchups. And not just between the top 30 players and some rank 400 guy but even within the top 30. So, you'd have to devise some really vague criterion that defines skill and then end up with only a handful of games between players of the same skill, knowing that you probably still haven't eliminated the issue completely, because, hey, what if that player just had a really bad day? I wouldn't know how to take this into account properly.

What if DevM (playing exclusively OH and USF) wouldn't have participated? Well, ok, probably USF and OH win rate would be lower. But even if you check out his personal stats, the trend is similar to what we see in the total data: He won all his USF matches, but lost 4 games as OH. Or Jesulin: He played 4 games as SOV vs. OH, winning 50%. He played OH only once, losing to USF. He won all 5 games as USF. He won 3 out of 6 games as OKW.

TLDR: I agree, the statistics are to some extent subject to which players played and so on, so they first and foremost reflect what happened during WPC and you have to be somewhat careful with generalizing them. And I wouldn't really know how to cover this properly...

This is kind of similar to my regular job: I get data I know is inaccurate and to some extent inconclusive. And then I have to derive models from that data. While that might seem weird, the thing is if you don't use that less then optimal data, you have no model. So, this is ok as long as you know what the limitations and shortcomings are :)
1 Nov 2016, 13:41 PM
#11
avatar of Siphon X.
Senior Editor Badge

Posts: 1136 | Subs: 2

jump backJump back to quoted post25 Oct 2016, 21:56 PMGhostTX


For the fun of it:

Faction stats for all 191 games:
Code

# GER SOV OKW USF UKF
Picked 126 100 65 80 11
Won 52 55 24 56 4
Won% 41 55 37 70 36
Std. dev 6 7 7 6 9


This is what you get when omitting all games with either Jesulin or DevM (160 left):

Code

# GER SOV OKW USF UKF
Picked 106 89 54 60 11
Won 44 51 21 40 4
Won% 42 57 39 67 36
Std. dev 7 4 4 7 9


So the difference isn't exactly huge...
1 user is browsing this thread: 1 guest
64 bit beta
Event in Progress

Ladders Top 10

  • #
    Steam Alias
    W
    L
    %
    Streak
Data provided by Relic Relic Entertainment

Replay highlight

VS
  • Ostheer flag Scotch
  • Oberkommando West flag VonAsten
  • U.S. Forces flag [NS] aerafield
  • U.S. Forces flag T.R. CrossFire
uploaded by aerafield

Board Info

244 users are online: 1 member and 243 guests
70trades
45 posts in the last 24h
620 posts in the last week
2089 posts in the last month
Registered members: 21180
Welcome our newest member, 70trades
Most online: 1221 users on 25 Feb 2020, 12:03 PM